Is the climate glass half full or half empty? IPCC Vice Chair Prof. Diana Ürge-Vorsatz

In this interview with the Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Professor Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, gives her perspective on a range of critical issues - in part presenting a glass-half-full perspective, despite so many mounting challenges.

This was recorded on Saturday 16th Nov at the midway point through COP29. Since the COP has ended, countries have finalised a $300 billion dollar pledge to vulnerable nations set against a required $1.3 trillion by 2035. Trust between so-called developed and developing or vulnerable nations remains stubbornly low. But meeting the $1.3 trillion required funding is not a charity gift, but rather a collaborative investment in all our futures. Until we collectively realise the only way forward is with all hands seen as equal, the fate for us all remains entirely bleak.

More COP29 interviews are on the way as well as an interview this week with the author of a new study on the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that risks up-ending all our climate rhetoric to date.

If you want a fast paced journey through the last eight COPs from Paris to the UAE then order my book COPOUT online, in paperback or audio, from all main retailers. This was my 9th COPOUT experience and I’ll be writing a supplementary chapter in the coming weeks that will include astonishing in-person admissions from delegates of fossil fuel producing nations as well as forays into the north of Azerbaijan through decimated landscapes and threadbare ecosystems.

Thanks to all subscribers!

Summary:

IPCC's role at COP29: The IPCC's primary function is to provide scientific knowledge to support climate negotiations. This includes hosting events at a pavilion in collaboration with the WMO and Mary Foundation, participating in discussions as a scientific voice, and strengthening partnerships with organizations that integrate science into decision-making.
Methane emissions focus: Methane, a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas, has seen rising concentrations. Regulating methane emissions offers faster results in reducing climate impacts compared to carbon dioxide. Progress on methane at COP29 is viewed as critical and achievable.
Understanding the 1.5°C target: Despite media claims, crossing the 1.5°C mark for short periods does not mean the Paris goal is permanently breached. The IPCC evaluates long-term averages, which currently place warming at 1.3°C. However, the rapidly shrinking carbon budget underscores the urgency for action.
Progress since the Paris Agreement: Global warming projections have improved, with worst-case scenarios of 5–6°C now considered unlikely. Current trajectories estimate warming between 2.5 and 4°C. Renewables supply a growing share of global electricity, though demand outpaces clean energy growth.
Balancing supply and demand: Diana emphasized the need for climate strategies that combine clean energy production with demand reduction. Solutions include retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency and designing cities that minimize car dependency, improving quality of life and reducing emissions.
Political and industrial challenges: Policymakers often face constraints from political and social realities, hindering rapid fossil fuel reductions. Diana advocates for pragmatic strategies that align climate actions with societal priorities and provide viable alternatives before phasing out fossil fuels.
Demand-side climate solutions: Highlighting the co-benefits of demand-focused pathways, such as improved air quality and more inclusive urban environments, Diana stressed that reducing energy and material demand is key to achieving climate goals.
Optimism despite obstacles: Subnational actors like cities, businesses, and civil society are driving progress, often independent of high-level political will. Advances in renewables and decentralized initiatives provide hope for climate solutions.
Scepticism about Solar Radiation Management (SRM): Diana expressed personal concerns about the unknowns surrounding SRM and stressed the need for more research before considering its implementation as a geoengineering strategy. She remains optimistic about achieving emission reductions through existing and scalable solutions.