Скачать или смотреть The use of life expectancy tables to estimate expected mortality among U.S. family forest landowners

It is widely accepted that periods of land transfer and inheritance represent periods of greater risk for forest parcellation and development. Accordingly, there is significant interest in better understanding land transfer dynamics in order to improve long-term conservation outcomes on private land (i.e. to stem forest loss). According to the most recent iteration of the National Woodland Owner Survey, more than 52 percent of family forest owners in the United States are 65 years of age or older. At the same time, greater than 70 percent of owners consider it ‘unlikely’ or ‘extremely unlikely’ that they will be transferring their land in the next five years. This begs the question, to what extent do landowners internalize life expectancy when making subjective assessments of the likelihood of land transfer? Here, we use an actuarial life expectancy approach to try and understand the extent to which life expectancy drives FFOs’ beliefs about land transfer as well as objectives, estate planning, and other variables.