Forecasting Sales for New Products: Step-by-Step Guide (Fashion, Innovations, Financial...)

How to forecast the Demand for New Products accurately like Apple or Zara? 👗🎯📱
Doing it wrong can have a painful impact on sales, overstock & stress 😮‍💨

First of all, there are 3 different types of new products:
1)Similar stable product with variation: new red bike last year vs blue bike this year
2)Fast Fashion product: Zara's new collection every 4 weeks
3)Innovative product, disruptive for the industry: APPLE Vision Pro, TESLA CyberTruck...🚚

Here is a quick summary of the 19 steps to forecast similar & fashion products:

Forecast similar & Fashion products:
00:00 : Define precise planning from idea creation to launch
02:45 : Standardize & centralize the data
3:53 : Define clear roles & responsibilities
04:49 : Define similar attributes between past and future new products
05:30 : Find the most comparable products based on your attributes
05:53 : Collect external market data
06:36 : Collect internal data (sales, availability, price…)
07:41 : Estimate baseline forecast (see example in the video)
08:21 : Review the first weeks of demand launch VS baseline forecast
09:09 : Forecast launch + baseline
09:42 : Include seasonality in your forecast
10:16 : Check Production capacity and supply chain lead time
10:26 : Check MOQ inventory turnover (most of the time too high)
10:59 : Approve product launch & profitability with all stakeholders
11:21 : Upload the forecast to your system or Excel
11:40 : Adjust with other products cannibalization
12:03 : Review your plan before the launch multiple times & adjust
12:33 : Review forecast accuracy quickly after launch
13:45 : Collect data, improve the process, and repeat

Tracking innovative with no comparable products
Forecasting Innovative product:
14:05 : forecast innovative products
14:28 : track interest
15:09 : test before - test series
15:36 : pre-order
15:48 : reduce lead time
16:22 : accept shortages
16:46 : accept shortages probability & stocks

My conclusion to simply forecasting new product launches:
17:28 : simplify new product launch
18:16 : keep it consistent & simple

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