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Security analyst Shantanu Mukharji believes that national elections in Bangladesh are likely to be held in February 2026, as announced by the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, despite differences over reforms.
“I don’t think reforms or anything will delay the elections further unless there is something extraordinary,” Mukharji said, referring to a consensus reached in London a few months ago.

However, he noted that the polls would not be free and fair, as the Awami League, led earlier by Sheikh Hasina who fled to India after last year’s student uprising, has been barred from contesting. “Technically, you are right. It cannot be free and fair,” he said, adding that the ruling dispensation would go ahead without the League as it suited their political ambitions.

On the role of other parties, Mukharji said the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, despite differences, are likely to collaborate after the polls in a “marriage of convenience,” united by hostility toward pro-India and secular forces. He predicted that such a government would be “very unlikely” to be friendly to India, citing past instances where BNP-Jamaat governments sheltered insurgents and leaned toward Pakistan.

Mukharji dismissed the electoral prospects of student groups who led the uprising, saying they lacked grassroots support. He suggested BNP and Jamaat could even co-opt Awami League figures as independents in certain constituencies.

On law and order, Mukharji said the situation remains fragile even a year after Hasina’s ouster. He cited violence in Gopalganj and the ransacking of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic residence as examples. While the army has pledged neutrality, he cautioned that it could step in if unrest escalates, as it has repeatedly done in Bangladesh’s history.

Mukharji said Yunus is unlikely to have a role after elections, except possibly a ceremonial one, while students may remain confined to agitation outside parliament. On foreign relations, he said India has maintained friendly gestures and will reach out to the next government, though ties remain strained.

Regarding regional dynamics, he dismissed Pakistani threats as rhetorical and said India was capable of responding effectively, while downplaying concerns about China’s role.



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