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India–US Deal EXPLAINED | No Russia Oil Promise

New details emerging from the India–US trade deal reveal a far more balanced and calculated picture than early speculation suggested.

First and most important — India has not made any official commitment to stop buying oil from Russia. This has been explicitly confirmed by a Russian government spokesperson, who stated that no such message has been received from India. This directly contradicts the narrative that India traded away its energy security for economic access.

The second major takeaway is scale. Over the next five years, India is expected to import nearly $500 billion worth of goods from the United States. This could include defence equipment, heavy machinery, aircraft, and high-end industrial systems, significantly deepening bilateral trade.

However, one assumption has been firmly debunked — there will be no zero-tariff regime for US products. Sensitive sectors such as Indian agriculture and dairy remain under tariff protection, safeguarding domestic farmers and food security. This indicates that India has not compromised core economic red lines.

What emerges is a familiar Indian strategy:
• Energy autonomy remains intact
• Strategic imports are expanded
• Domestic vulnerabilities stay protected

This is not alignment at any cost. It is multi-vector balancing — trading with the US, buying oil from Russia, and protecting internal sectors at the same time.

In geopolitics, the real story is rarely in the headline.
It is in what was not promised.

#IndiaUS #TradeDeal #RussiaOil #Geopolitics #EconomicStrategy #TheFiscalDiaries