Forecast GDP growth in Stata

Learn how to forecast in Stata with two examples of GDP growth. First, I forecast U.S. real GDP growth into 2025 to determine how quickly the U.S. economy may recover from the pandemic. Then, I forecast world real GDP growth into 2025 and after the global financial crisis. Finally, I compare my forecast with IMF forecasts after the global crisis.

Program code and data: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sWxh...

The basic steps in the program code follow Stata's overview of forecasting: https://www.stata.com/features/overvi....

Mike Jonas Econometrics:    • Time Series Econometrics: The CORRGRA...  

Aric LaBarr:    • What are Autoregressive (AR) Models  

IMF World Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2020: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/...

IMF World Real GDP Growth Data: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/W...

My website: https://sites.google.com/view/lenz


---Contents of this video---
00:00 - Intro
00:29 - Program code and data
00:51 - Plot of U.S. GDP in current prices
01:11 - Stationarity in plots
03:01 - Skewness in charts
04:01 - Skewness tests and methods
05:30 - Stationarity tests and # of lags
07:28 - Forecast model of U.S. growth
08:39 - Forecast plot
09:07 - World GDP growth and plot
10:11 - Forecast after 2020
10:29 - Forecast after 2010 and IMF
10:54 - Comparison with IMF forecasts