Скачать или смотреть Liquidity, AI and Late-Cycle Risks | Risk Sentiment Daily 2025-12-12

This daily market update focuses on cross-asset risk sentiment, AI-driven growth, and shifting equity leadership, with an eye on portfolio management and multi-asset investing. We look at how Fed policy, credit conditions, and valuation risks are shaping today’s late‑cycle environment.

We break down how monetary easing, liquidity support, and an AI-led productivity boom are powering a cautiously risk-on backdrop, even as stretched valuations, private credit vulnerabilities, and softening labor data keep downside risks very real.

Key takeaways:
Fed rate cuts and surprise T‑bill buying are reinforcing liquidity backstops and supporting risk appetite.
AI-driven capex and productivity are feeding strong earnings momentum, but expectations are increasingly priced in.
Equity leadership is broadening into small caps, cyclicals, and real assets, alongside surging gold and silver.
AI and equity valuation risks are rising, highlighted by Oracle’s stress and bubble concerns in leading names.
Private credit and tight spreads leave the system exposed if defaults or growth disappoint.
Softening labor indicators, tariffs, and policy uncertainty underline how late-cycle and fragile the expansion has become.

This video is for information only and is not investment advice.

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Chapters:
00:00 Today’s risk sentiment and key risk drivers
00:21 Overall risk sentiment: cautiously risk-on
02:13 Fed easing and liquidity backstops
03:36 AI-driven productivity and earnings momentum
05:02 Broadening risk-on rotation in assets
06:25 AI and equity valuation risks
07:52 Growing private and credit vulnerabilities
09:05 Softening labor and late-cycle fragilities
10:30 Key Takeaways