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Toronto's condo market is experiencing an unprecedented crisis with 40,000 unsold units flooding the Greater Toronto Area—the largest inventory buildup in Canadian real estate history. New condo sales in 2024 collapsed to just 4,590 units, the lowest since 1996, while 81% of condo investors are now losing money every single month according to CIBC Economics.
This comprehensive market analysis breaks down the data behind Toronto's condo correction: prices down 13-21% from peak, developer insolvencies up 50%, and construction starts at 30-year lows. We examine why the current oversupply is creating tomorrow's housing shortage, what the mortgage renewal cycle means for delinquencies, and whether this represents a crisis or a necessary market correction.
Key topics covered:
40,000 unsold condo units across the GTA (24,277 new unsold + 10,688 active listings)
78 months of inventory at current sales pace vs. 4-6 months in balanced markets
Condo prices falling from $1,045/sqft to $812/sqft (resale) and $1,689/sqft to $1,338/sqft (new construction)
81% of GTA condo investors operating with negative cash flow
Developer receiverships: Vandyk Group, StateView Homes, The One at 1 Bloor West
Construction starts down 88% in Q1 2025—only 497 units started
Rental vacancy hitting 3.4% as investors flood rental market
The coming supply cliff: completions dropping from 30,000 units (2025) to potentially 9,561 units (2028)
Mortgage renewal shock as 2020-2021 mortgages renew at triple the original rates
📊 Data Sources & Research:
TRREB Q3 2025 Market Analysis: https://trreb.ca/market-data/condo-ma...
CIBC Economics GTA Condo Investment Study (July 2024): https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?id=a...
CMHC Fall 2024 Rental Market Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professio...
Developer Insolvency Data (2024): https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-to...
Storeys GTA Condo Supply Analysis: https://storeys.com/gta-condo-supply-...
Better Dwelling Investor Cash Flow Analysis: https://betterdwelling.com/over-4-in-...
Project Cancellations 2024: https://storeys.com/gtha-condo-cancel...
Every claim verified with primary sources.
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Disclaimer:
We’re real estate enthusiasts—not licensed agents, appraisers, or financial advisors. All content is based on publicly available data, market observations, and personal opinions, and is shared for entertainment and general information only. Accuracy isn’t guaranteed. Always consult a qualified real estate professional, attorney, or financial advisor before making any property, investment, or relocation decisions.This video provides fact-based analysis without political bias—just economics, data, and real-world impact on families, developers, and the construction industry.
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