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We are going to discuss taking withdrawals during your retirement.

What is the probability of your portfolio lasting for a retirement that could potentially last 30 years or more?

Or.

How much can you withdrawal from your portfolio each year, and still have a decent chance that your money will last you for the rest of your life?

One of best studies I have seen on this topic, was done by Jim Otar, who wrote a book called Unveiling the Retirement Myth. In it he runs calculations going all the way back to 1900. He examined what if you retired in 1900, what if you retired in 1901, 1902 etc., all the way through to today. He wanted to give you an idea of how the sequence of returns and the unlucky possibility of retiring right before a bad year or series of years in the market could impact your chances that your portfolio could run out of money.

This is what he came up with:

Going all the way back to 1900, if you kept your withdrawals to 3% of the value of your portfolio and just increased them each year by the rate of inflation, you had 100% success rate if your portfolio was invested 40% stocks 60% bonds, or the other way around 60 stocks and 40 bonds. If you were 100% stocks or 100% bonds you had some possibilities of running out of money.

At a 4% withdrawal rate, you had between a 46% and 78% chance that your money would last you for 30 years. There is a lot of talk about the 4% rule, and as a rule of thumb it's not all bad. However, based on history, you still had a 50% chance of running out of money, depending on how you had it invested.

At a 6% withdrawal rate, you had very little chance that your money would last you for 30 years. A portfolio of 100% stocks gave you the best chance at just 18%. In other words, out of the last 110 years, in only about 20 of those years could you have begun a 6% withdrawal and had your money last for 30 years.

The conclusion of his study was that an optimal withdrawal rate of 3.8% gave you a 90% chance that your money would last for 30 years. Even though this may be considered the optimal withdrawal rate, you should consult with your advisor as to the proper withdrawal rate for your situation.

What was probably most surprising to me in reading this study, was how little your asset allocation affected the probability that your money would last. If you had more money in bonds, inflation became the factor that could cause you to run out of money. If you had more money in stocks, then it was stock market crashes that could cause you to run out.
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