Скачать или смотреть NIO: Jane Street Buys BIG + New ES6 Launch! Bull Run Starting? NIO STOCK ANALYSIS TODAY BUY OR SELL

​NIO: The Bull Case (November 18, 2025)
​Here is the deep dive on the high-conviction "strong buy" reversal setup for NIO, which is built on three powerful dynamics converging at the same time.
​Date: November 18, 2025
​Current Price: ~$6.08
​💰 Topic 1: The "Smart Money" Tsunami (Jane Street)
​A massive institutional player, Jane Street Group, has placed a huge bet on NIO. This is considered the main catalyst.
​The Firm: Jane Street is a powerful quant firm, not a traditional value investor. They use complex algorithms to find "price dislocation."
​The Move: Jane Street increased its NIO position by over 3,000%.
​The Stake: Their total holding is now roughly 19.2 million shares.
​The Thesis: This move signals their models believe the market price is disconnected from its true value and is about to correct "violently to the upside." They are making this bet before the Q3 earnings report on November 25th.
​🚗 Topic 2: Product & Profit Catalyst (ES6)
​Just as the institutional buy was revealed, NIO announced tangible product news that directly addresses market concerns about EV demand and profitability.
​The Launch: On November 17th, NIO officially launched the ES6 300,000th unit commemorative edition.
​The Price: This premium model is priced at RMB 349,800.
​Impact 1 (Revenue): Deliveries start today, November 18th, meaning this high-priced revenue immediately hits the books for Q4.
​Impact 2 (Brand): Celebrating 300,000 units of a bestseller directly counters the negative narrative that EV demand is slowing.
​Impact 3 (Margins): This is the "financial sweet spot." Special editions have "much, much higher" gross margins, showing Wall Street a clear path to improved profitability.
​💥 Topic 3: The Technical "Powder Keg" (Short Squeeze)
​A huge number of short sellers are trapped, creating the potential for a powerful short squeeze.
​Shares Short: A massive 171.6 million shares are currently short.
​Percent of Float: This represents 9.23% of the total float.
​The "Powder Keg": The real aggression is in the Hong Kong market, where short selling reportedly makes up around 45% of the daily trading volume.
​The Trap: These bears aggressively shorted the stock, betting it would break below the key $6.00 support level. The support held (thanks to the Jane Street buy), and now all those shorts are underwater.
​📊 Topic 4: The Battleground (Key Levels & Indicators)
​The technicals are coiled for a big move, with clear lines drawn for both bulls and bears.
​RSI: The Relative Strength Index is at ~33, which is in "oversold" territory and historically precedes a rally for NIO.
​Support Base: A strong "double bottom" has formed at $6.02. This is the "line in the sand" that sellers have failed to break.
​Current Hurdle: The price is fighting to get back above the 5-day moving average at $6.14.
​Key Levels to Watch:
​🟢 Main Support: $6.02
​🚀 Breakout Trigger: $6.28 - $6.30 (yesterday's high). A move above this level is the confirmation that triggers the short squeeze.
​🟡 Near-Term Resistance: $6.50
​🔴 Stop Loss (Thesis Invalid): $5.85
​🎯 Topic 5: The Bull Case Prediction & Timeline
​The convergence of these factors points to a specific, aggressive move.
​Prediction: An aggressive reversal targeting the $6.90 - $7.00 range.
​Short-Term (Next 24-48 hours): Look for an aggressive retest of the $6.30 breakout level. A high-volume break could push the stock to $6.50 by Friday.
​Medium-Term: The rally is expected to build into the November 25th earnings report.
​The Target: The 50-day moving average, which sits at $6.89.
​The Alignment: Jane Street's quant model, a recent UBS upgrade to BUY, and the 50-day technical level all point to the same target: $6.89.

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