Скачать или смотреть “The 7 Stages of Collapse: How 1929 Erased 89% of Wealth — And Why We’re Entering Stage 5 Again”

October 29th, 1929 — Black Tuesday.
The Dow Jones collapsed 12% in a single day.
Sixteen million shares traded in sheer panic.
But the real crash didn’t begin that day — it began years earlier.
It followed a seven-stage economic pattern that has appeared three times in modern history:
1929. 1989 Japan. 2008 Global.
Each time, it destroyed trillions — and each time, it began with the same illusion: “This time is different.”

This isn’t just history.
It’s a financial blueprint, and today, we’re walking straight into the same trap — now in Stage 5.

THE SEVEN STAGES OF COLLAPSE

Stage 1 – Easy Credit (1921–1927):
After the 1920–21 recession, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to 3%. Margin lending exploded from $1 billion to $8.5 billion — nearly 8% of U.S. GDP.
Investors borrowed 90% on margin — $1,000 down for $10,000 of stock. Leverage became the new prosperity.

Stage 2 – Speculation Replaces Investment (1927–1928):
Investment trusts — the 1920s version of today’s leveraged ETFs — raised over $8 billion.
Goldman Sachs launched the Trading Corporation in 1928, stacking leverage through nested trusts. RCA stock rose 570% in 18 months despite only 30% profit growth.
The market became a casino with no exit doors.

Stage 3 – Smart Money Exits (Summer 1929):
Joseph Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, and Europe’s biggest banks quietly sold everything.
Insiders dumped stock while assuring the public that “the fundamentals are strong.”
The overnight lending rate hit 20%, a flashing red light ignored by most.

Stage 4 – Peak Valuations & “New Era” Thinking (Sept 1929):
The Dow reached 381 — a number untouched again until 1954.
Yale economist Irving Fisher declared: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
Reality had already cracked. Earnings peaked in Q2, but prices soared for three more months — pure euphoria.

Stage 5 – The Crack (Oct 24–29, 1929):
Thursday the 24th: markets plunged 11%.
Margin calls ignited forced liquidations.
Banks formed a rescue consortium. It worked — for four hours.
Monday the 28th: -13%.
Tuesday the 29th: -12%.
By week’s end, 89% of paper wealth was gone. The ticker tape couldn’t keep up — two hours behind the chaos.

Stage 6 – The Cascade (1930–1932):
No FDIC. No safety nets.
Over 10,000 banks failed. Goldman’s $326 trust fell to $1.75.
Unemployment hit 25%. Industrial output fell 47%.
Debt deflation crushed the real economy — and hope itself.

Stage 7 – The Aftermath (1933–1945):
Recovery didn’t come from policy — it came from war.
The Great Depression reshaped the world.
FDR left the gold standard.
Social Security, the FDIC, and the SEC were born from desperation, not design.
Meanwhile, Germany’s collapse birthed Hitler’s rise — proving that economic ruin always breeds something darker.

NOW – 2025

Stage 1 – Easy Credit:
Rates near zero for over a decade. $8 trillion printed through QE.
Global debt now exceeds $315 trillion, three times global GDP.

Stage 2 – Speculation:
Meme stocks, NFTs, SPACs, crypto mania.
Companies with no profits valued higher than nations.
The 1920s casino returned — on your phone.

Stage 3 – Smart Money Exits:
Buffett hoards $325 billion in cash.
Corporate insiders sell at record levels.
Hedge funds short historic amounts.
Foreign central banks buy gold, not U.S. Treasuries.

Stage 4 – New Era Thinking:
AI, blockchain, and digital utopia — the same “new paradigm” promise wrapped in new technology.
Valuations break gravity. Skeptics are mocked as dinosaurs.
History is repeating — tweet by tweet.

Stage 5 – The Crack → WE ARE HERE
Peak leverage. Peak confidence. Peak complacency.
The world stands exactly where it did in 1929 — one trigger away from the domino falling.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly.
But it rhymes with mathematical precision.

Why Watch This:

Because if you understand the 7 stages, you can see the end before it happens.
The signs aren’t hidden. They’re flashing everywhere.
We’re not predicting doom — we’re mapping the pattern.