Скачать или смотреть India 2026: The $4.5 Trillion Truth No One Is Telling You

Real GDP Growth: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and the First Advance Estimates project a growth rate of 7.4% for FY 2025-26. This aligns with Fitch's projection of 7.4%, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts 7.3%. Other international agencies like the World Bank and IMF project growth rates of 6.5% and 6.2%, respectively.
• Nominal GDP: The economy is expected to grow by 8% in nominal terms.
• Global Standing: India is ranked as the 4th largest economy by nominal GDP and the 3rd largest by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), with a PPP valuation estimated at $19.143 trillion.
Inflation and Monetary Outlook
• Inflation: The economic environment is characterized as a "Goldilocks period" of high growth and low inflation. The RBI has lowered its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast for FY 2025-26 to 2.0%, down from earlier estimates, attributing this to favorable supply-side conditions and healthy agricultural prospects.
• Monetary Policy: To support this momentum, the RBI reduced the policy repo rate by 100 basis points cumulatively to 5.25% by late 2025.
Sectoral Projections
• Services: This sector remains the dominant growth engine, estimated to expand by 9.1% in FY26, contributing over 56% to the Gross Value Added (GVA).
• Industry and Manufacturing: The industrial sector is projected to grow by 6.2%, with manufacturing specifically accelerating due to Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.
• Agriculture: The sector is expected to stabilize with a growth of 3.1%, supported by favorable monsoons.
Key Strategic Initiatives for 2026
• Infrastructure: The Union Budget 2026-27 announced seven new high-speed rail corridors (e.g., Delhi-Varanasi, Mumbai-Pune) to function as "growth connectors," alongside a record capital outlay of ₹2,78,000 crore for railways. Additionally, the Smart Cities Mission has seen 31 cities fully transformed.
• Semiconductors: The India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) 2.0 was launched with an allocation of ₹1,000 crore to expand domestic manufacturing capabilities, aiming to reduce import dependence significantly by 2029.
• Energy: Under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, India is accelerating efforts with ₹4,440 crore in incentives awarded for electrolyser manufacturing in early 2026, targeting a production cost reduction to 1.5–2 per kg by 2030.
• Digital Technology: India has set a target to contribute 10% of global 6G patents and aims for full 4G saturation across the country by June 2026.
Trade and External Sector
• India's exports have reached record levels, with services exports specifically growing by 13.6%