Скачать или смотреть Manufacturing sector to slow in 2026, services to perform better in growth: NABO

한국 제조업 저성장 고착화… "내년 서비스업 성장, 제조업 앞선다"

A new parliamentary report predicts South Korea's manufacturing sector will slow down while its services sector will see growth next year.
Our correspondent Kim Do-yeon covers this outlook and its implications.

The nation's manufacturing sector is expected to suffer as its growth is being stymied by U.S. tariffs.
According to a mid-term economic outlook by the National Assembly Budget Office on Monday, real value-added growth for manufacturing is projected at 1.5 percent next year.
This is a 0.3 percentage point decline from this year's 1.8 percent.
Also, its outlook is showing a declining trend throughout 2026 with the first half reaching 1.6 percent and the latter half, 1.4 percent.
The report attributes the slowdown to the escalating impact of U.S. tariff policies and a delayed recovery in domestic construction.
The outlook for key industries is also uncertain.
With semiconductors, there are concerns of a price drop amid heightened competition from Chinese suppliers.
Meanwhile, the automotive industry also faces headwinds from slowing global demand.

"Unless we develop a truly groundbreaking product — one with significant exclusive power — or unless such an innovative product emerges, if we continue to compete with the products we currently have, it seems to be a natural trend, in some respects, that the value-added rate will continue to fall."

Meanwhile, the services sector's real value-added growth is estimated to rise to 2.0 percent next year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from this year's 1.4 percent.
This forecast is half a percentage point higher than that for the manufacturing sector.
Key upward factors include rising healthcare demand from an aging population and growth in the transport sector, supported by stable oil prices and increased domestic and foreign travel.

This trend is expected to become structural.
NABO projects services sector growth to hold at around 2.0 percent through 2029, while manufacturing is forecast to settle in the 1.7 percent range after 2027.
Experts note that as manufacturing bases shift to the U.S., domestic facility investment will weaken.
A researcher from the Korea Economic and Industrial Research Institute stressed the need for "policy designed to attract foreign corporate facilities and induce foreign capital" into South Korea.

Kim Do-yeon, Arirang News.

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2025-11-17, 17:00 (KST)