How fisher behavior can bias stock assessment: insights from an agent-based modeling approach

September 5, 2024

Title: How fisher behavior can bias stock assessment: insights from an agent-based modeling approach

Series: National Stock Assessment Science Seminar Series

Presenter: Steven Saul Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Arizona State University

Sponsors: NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and NOAA Library

Abstract: This study evaluates whether data collected from commercial fishing fleets in the Gulf of Mexico are representative of trends in fish population size. A coupled bioeconomic agent-based model was developed to generate simulated fishery data, which were used to populate an age-structured stock assessment. Comparison of stock assessment results with simulated fish population dynamics showed that management advice from assessment models based on fishery-dependent data could be biased.

Keywords: stock assessment, CPUE, agent-based simulation

Bio: Steven Saul is a contractor with ECS Federal working with the national stock assessment program and an assistant professor at Arizona State University. Steve's research applies an interdisciplinary systems-based approach to understanding tropical marine resource dynamics, the ways that humans use these resources, and the feedback between humans and the natural system. This approach identifies solutions that improve the management of marine resource sustainability while preserving food security, economic sustainability, and maintaining cultural ways of life for coastal communities.