Скачать или смотреть Charlie Munger: Psychology of Human Misjudgment (Full Speech)

Learn from Charlie Munger's classic "The Psychology of Human Misjudgement" speech. The CMQ version includes caption-style subtitles and enhanced audio. The goal with this upload is to help more people benefit from the wisdom of Charlie Munger.

The essence of Munger's speech revolves around the idea that understanding psychology is crucial for making better decisions. He outlines a series of psychological tendencies that he believes commonly lead to judgment errors. These include:

Reward and Punishment Super-Response Tendency: People are heavily influenced by incentives. Munger emphasizes the importance of always considering the incentives at play and how they might skew decision-making.

Liking/Loving Tendency and Disliking/Hating Tendency: Our affections and aversions towards people and things can heavily skew our judgment and decisions, often leading us to irrational choices.

Doubt-Avoidance Tendency: Munger notes that humans have a dislike for doubt and uncertainty, often leading to hasty decisions just to resolve that discomfort.

Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency: People have a hard time changing their minds and tend to cling to their beliefs and previous decisions, even in the face of new evidence.

Curiosity Tendency: He acknowledges the positive aspect of human nature, where curiosity leads to exploration and learning, which can be beneficial for decision-making.

Kantian Fairness Tendency: Munger refers to a tendency towards actions that are fair and just, as per the philosophical ideals of Immanuel Kant.

Envy/Jealousy Tendency: He warns against the dangers of envy and jealousy, which can cloud judgment and lead to poor decisions.

Reciprocation Tendency: The inclination to reciprocate both positive and negative actions can influence our decisions, sometimes leading us away from objective reasoning.

Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency: Decisions can be swayed by mere associations, whether they are positive or negative, rational or irrational.

Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial: Munger points out the tendency of individuals to deny realities that are painful to accept, which can lead to misguided decisions.

Excessive Self-Regard Tendency: He talks about the natural tendency of people to overestimate their own abilities and contributions, leading to overconfidence.

Overoptimism Tendency: Munger warns against the tendency to be overly optimistic, which can lead to underestimating risks and potential problems.

Deprival-Superreaction Tendency: The fear of losing something can lead to irrational decision-making, as people often react strongly to the prospect of loss.

Social-Proof Tendency: He discusses the influence of seeing others doing something as a trigger for an individual to do the same, often without sufficient personal analysis.

Contrast-Misreaction Tendency: Munger explains how contrasts can lead to misjudgments, as people might make decisions based on relative differences rather than absolute values.

Stress-Influence Tendency: Under stress, judgment can be severely impaired, leading to poor decisions.

Availability-Misweighing Tendency: People tend to give undue weight to information that is readily available or recent, rather than evaluating the full scope of data.

Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency: Skills and knowledge need to be regularly used and refreshed, or they will be lost, impacting decision-making abilities.

Drug-Misinfluence Tendency: Munger notes the detrimental impact and drug use on judgment and decision-making, emphasizing the importance of avoiding such influences to maintain clear thinking.

Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency: This refers to the degradation of cognitive abilities with age, which can affect decision-making processes.

Authority-Misinfluence Tendency: Munger talks about the tendency to be overly influenced by authority, leading to decisions that might not be in one's best interest or are not based on sound reasoning.

Twaddle Tendency: He warns against the tendency to focus on or spread irrelevant information, which can distract from more important, decision-relevant data.

Reason-Respecting Tendency: People are often more likely to comply with requests or follow advice if a reason is given, even if the reason is not particularly strong or relevant.

Lollapalooza Effect: Munger highlights this as a convergence of multiple psychological tendencies acting in concert, which can lead to extremely irrational and exaggerated outcomes.