Скачать или смотреть AMOC collapse no longer low likelihood event

The new study published by the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in the summer of 2025 has me concerned, as it suggests the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is no longer a low-likelihood event. Previously, the scientific community saw it as a "low likelihood, high impact event," with a chance of less than 10%. According to this new research, if we don't drastically cut emissions in the next 10 to 20 years, the AMOC will collapse in 70% of climate models. Even if we do make those drastic cuts, the possibility of collapse is still 27%.

I think it's crucial for everyone to understand the dramatic effects a collapse would have, especially for those of us living in Northern Europe. It would mean a significant cooling, with temperatures dropping by as much as three degrees in a single decade. This is about ten times faster than the warming we're currently experiencing. The consequences would be severe: more frequent storms, challenging agriculture, and a return to conditions similar to a mini-ice age. The last time this happened was during the Younger Dryas Event about 12,000 years ago, which led to 1,000 years of an ice age in Europe.

The AMOC is already at its weakest in 1,600 years, largely due to melting ice from Greenland. We're seeing other warning signs too, like a cold pocket forming next to Greenland where the water isn't warming up. It seems that, unless a drastic revolution occurs, we'll have to live with the knowledge that we will likely pass this "no turning back" point in the next 10 to 20 years.

Some sources:
1) Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds - https://www.theguardian.com/environme...
2) For the first time in 40 Years, Panama's deep and cold ocean waters fail to emerge - https://phys.org/news/2025-09-years-p...
3) Parts of Antarctica are turning green faster than we thought from climate change, 'shocked' scientists say - https://www.livescience.com/planet-ea...
4) Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
5) 'We don't really consider it low probability anymore': Collapse of key Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts, says oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf - https://www.livescience.com/planet-ea...