What Happens to Your Money When Rates Drop?

🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw. What Happens to Your Money When Rates Drop? Macro Mondays is back for another macro-deep dive into the latest market analysis and price action insights.

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, and his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research's head of geopolitics, are back for another episode of Macro Mondays. They analyze the market's response to last week's interest rate cut, what it means for the looming U.S. debt ceiling, and what a war in Lebanon could mean for the global economy. Recorded on September 23, 2024.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Monetary Metals has been paying a physical yield on gold and silver for over 8 years. Earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. For more information go to https://www.realvision.com/metals.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Monetary Metals
01:23 - Macro Mondays: Overview of Rate Cut and Market Reactions
02:21 - Analysis of Recent Rate Cuts and Market Reactions
03:38 - Impact of 50 Basis Point Cut on the Economy
05:22 - Historical Analysis of Rate Cuts and Market Performance
06:27 - Employment Data: Second Jobs and Part-Time Employment Trends
07:42 - Impact of Inflation on the Labor Market
08:22 - Reliability of Employment Data and Revisions
10:19 - Seasonality in Employment Data During Election Years
11:33 - Impact of U.S. Election Uncertainty on Hiring
12:41 - Impact of Hiring Uncertainty on the Economy
13:15 - Predictions for the Fed’s Actions for the Rest of the Year
14:23 - Using Withheld Taxes to Gauge Job Market Strength
15:34 - Expected Rate Cuts and Market Positioning
16:09 - U.S. Debt Ceiling and Fiscal Policy Risks
17:14 - Impact of Debt Ceiling on Treasury Issuance and Liquidity
18:46 - U.S. Treasury Cash Balance and Debt Ceiling Dynamics
20:00 - Impact of Treasury Issuance on Liquidity and Risk Assets
21:02 - Treasury Performance Before and After Debt Ceiling Deals
22:07 - Middle East Geopolitical Risks and Impact on Markets
24:43 - Positioning Strategies: Fixed Income and Liquidity Trends
25:19 - Macro Regime Models and Asset Class Performance
27:58 - Macro Regime Models for Different Regions
28:32 - Fair Value Models for Fixed Income
29:40 - Analyzing Trends in Fixed Income and Risk Assets
31:21 - Window Dressing by Banks: Impact on Markets
34:30 - Impact of Cross-Currency Basis on Liquidity
35:43 - Strategies for Managing Risk During Window Dressing Periods
36:55 - Potential Impact of Ground Operations in the Middle East
38:33 - Closing Remarks and Market Outlook

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