Mark Tooley Confesses Inaccurate Projections

Mark Tooley and other evangelical leaders in Methodism made projections, educated guesses, a year or so ago about the final numbers of disaffiliations out of The United Methodist Church. This week, he tracked down an old projection and humbly admitted that he had underestimated the interest in leaving the denomination. I spend a few minutes summarizing some of the history leading up to this point, and speaking to recent analysis I have done on number of local churches, local of attendees, and level of giving in the UMC. The common sense of grassroots Methodists was indeed underestimated by all. Despite all of the confusion of our age, collaborative decision making still seems the best model for group action.