Скачать или смотреть Coup in Russia: Putin is in big trouble, elites have already decided on a successor

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Is a coup possible in Russia in 2026? Igor Eidman, a Russian sociologist and opposition figure, answered this question in his blog .
“The main outcome of 2025 is that the Putin-Trump gang failed to bring Ukraine to its knees. Putin failed to destroy it diplomatically with Trump's help and is now once again trying to achieve this goal on the battlefield. The Russian dictator has abandoned the idea of freezing the war along the current front lines and has instead relied on a military offensive. He is trying to sell the promise of a quick victory to both his international partners, including Trump, and the Russian "elite." In the coming months, it will become clear to all of them that the specter of victory has once again eluded Putin. Then the Russian dictator will be in serious trouble. Only the lazy haven't recently written about the critical economic and budgetary situation in Russia and the sharp decline in oil and gas revenues. However, the domestic political situation in the coming year will also be quite dangerous for Putin. Russia's elite dreamed of some kind of "deal" with Trump that would allow them to emerge from the unsuccessful war on terms favorable to Russia”, Igor Eidman added.

According to him and Trump proposed such a way to end the war last year. But Putin demanded everything at once, essentially insisting that Trump simply force Ukraine to capitulate. It turned out that the American president was simply incapable of doing so. “As a result, the freeze on the war, as hoped for by the Russian leadership, failed to materialize. And Putin, who fancies himself a great military leader, has become completely obsessed with the game of "war," and simply cannot stop, is to blame for this. Discontent with him within his own circle will only grow. I don't rule out the possibility of a coup in Russia as early as next year. The Russian ruling elite already has a candidate for Putin's successor: Dmitry Kozak. He has ties both to the St. Petersburg faction from which he emerged, and to the Moscow elite. He's a friend and associate of Sobyanin and Yevtushenkov. At the end of the year, the media actively cultivated and promoted his image as an opponent of the war and a reformer. This can't be a coincidence. Apparently, he's already being groomed to negotiate with the West for the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of relations as a representative of a "new, anti-war, reforming" Russia. Does this scenario seem unrealistic to you? I won't argue. However, the only alternative is a major European war between Russia and leading European countries in the coming years”, Igor Eidman said.
Media previously reported, media outlets reported how Kozak refused to obey the Kremlin leader on Ukraine.
At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one of the Kremlin's key officials, former deputy head of the presidential administration Dmitry Kozak, refused Putin's order to demand Kyiv's capitulation. This was reported by The New York Times , citing three independent sources. When the conversation with Putin became extremely heated, Kozak, according to the newspaper, declared that he was prepared to face arrest or even execution for his refusal. This occurred on the second day of the war.
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