Скачать или смотреть AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.LSE): An In-Depth Equity Investment Analysis

This report provides a comprehensive investment analysis of AstraZeneca PLC (AZN), a global, science-led biopharmaceutical company. The analysis concludes that AstraZeneca represents a compelling long-term investment, underpinned by its industry-leading growth in Oncology and a robust, late-stage pipeline poised to offset near-term patent expirations and systemic pricing pressures. While the company's shares trade at a premium to many peers, its "Ambition 2030" strategy provides a credible and well-defined path to sustained value creation that justifies this valuation.
The investment thesis is predicated on several key pillars. First, AstraZeneca has successfully executed a remarkable turnaround over the past decade, transforming itself into a high-growth enterprise with strong momentum in its core therapeutic areas. The Oncology franchise, now accounting for over 40% of revenue, continues to deliver robust double-digit growth driven by a portfolio of blockbuster drugs including Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Lynparza, and the rapidly expanding antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) Enhertu.1
Second, management has demonstrated strategic foresight in proactively addressing the significant patent cliff looming in 2025-2028, most notably for the high-revenue drug Farxiga. The $39 billion acquisition of Alexion in 2021 successfully established a durable Rare Disease business as a third pillar of growth, diversifying revenue streams.3 This is complemented by a series of smaller, technology-focused acquisitions in high-potential areas like cell therapy and radioconjugates, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of innovation.4
Third, the company's pipeline is one of the most productive in the industry, with 196 projects in development.6 The late-stage pipeline contains several potential blockbuster assets, such as camizestrant and volrustomig, which are critical to backfilling revenue lost to patent expirations and fueling the next wave of growth. Management's ambitious "Ambition 2030" target to achieve $80 billion in revenue is supported by a clear strategy of launching 20 new medicines this decade, a goal that appears credible given the company's recent track record of execution.7
However, the investment is not without significant risks. The company faces intense pricing pressure, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States, which will impact key products.8 Its substantial presence in China, while historically a growth driver, now represents a concentrated source of geopolitical and regulatory risk, highlighted by ongoing investigations by Chinese authorities.9 Furthermore, the success of the investment thesis is critically dependent on flawless execution in the clinic and the marketplace; any major failure in the late-stage pipeline could jeopardize long-term growth targets.
Valuation analysis indicates that AstraZeneca trades at a premium Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple of approximately 30.2x, reflecting its superior growth profile compared to peers like Pfizer and Merck.10 While this premium warrants caution, it is justified by the company's strong performance and clear strategic direction. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests potential undervaluation, contingent on the successful execution of its pipeline and long-term strategy.11