Can China and Russia Navigate Their Power Transition in Central Asia?

China and Russia have long had a de facto partnership in Central Asia, in which Russia was the primary security provider and China was the primary investor. Under this arrangement, Beijing tacitly agreed not to challenge Moscow's regional primacy, and regional states largely respected the interests of their great power neighbors. But two processes are now underway that might jeopardize this arrangement.

First, a power transition is underway in the region, with Chinese power rising fast relative to Russia's, and power transitions have historically been prone to competition and even conflict. Next, regional countries are increasingly asserting their own interests, including in ways that could accelerate a trend toward Chinese-Russian competition. Whether Beijing and Moscow can preserve their partnership in the region against these headwinds is far from certain.