Heavy-Tailed Distributions: What Lurks Beyond Our Intuitions? - Anders Sandberg

Understanding heavy-tailed distributions are important to assessing likelihoods and impact scales when thinking about possible disasters - especially relevant to xRisk and Global Catastrophic Risk analysis. How likely is civilization to be devastated by a large scale disaster or even go extinct?
Anders discusses how heavy-tailed distributions account for more than our intuitions tell us. Considering the probability large-scale disasters may be far more important than we intuit.

Anders also ends on an interesting point - while we don't seem to be putting enough resources in mitigating against large spikes in disasters, we are far too uninterested in going for the big wins in technology & science.

Related article: http://www.scifuture.org/heavy-tailed...
Also see -
Anders Sandberg: The Survival Curve of Our Species: Handling Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks http://www.iffs.se/en/calendar/anders...

Anders Sandberg on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_...


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Science, Technology & the Future: http://scifuture.org