Скачать или смотреть The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in federal politics

After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come.

Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s polling numbers begin to drop — if at all? Will there be any more floor-crossers? And, of course, will there be an election in the year to come?

We’re splitting up the 2026 Over/Under Contest into two parts. Today, we’re reviewing how we did in 2025 (badly) before we set our sights on the year ahead of us in federal politics. Next week, we’ll place our lines and make our predictions for the provincial political scene.

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