BITCOIN KILLER WHALE GAMES

I considered a few different ideas for today's Bitcoin analysis and since we have seen liquidity moving so aggressively in the order book including a number of spoofs in both directions and because we are headed into the weekend which is a Time when we often see predatory killer whales playing whale games, I thought that would be a good central theme for today's bit break analysis.

It really doesn't matter if you consider it to be manipulation, gamification or fair play, when you can identify activity in the order book that looks to be choreographed or inorganic, the Net effect of liquidity moving aggressively is the same. Of course, it’s up to you to decide if you are going to sit it out and wait for things to settle down, or attempt to trade. Sitting it out is obviously the safest approach, but that could come at a significant opportunity cost. Attempting to trade it comes with increased risk. If you think you can beat these killer whales at their games, then you’d better have a bigger stack than they do. I personally do not, but I have something better. A tool that not only gives me an edge in trading everyday, but it also gives me a window to the order book, which for this analogy I’ll call the gameboard. If you study the game long enough, and you don’t get too greedy, you can get an understanding of what these whales are doing and swim in their wake.

That tool is FireCharts, and the key to being successful doing this is to have good risk management practices and not to be too greedy. When trading this way, it’s important to close your trades before these killer whales send it the other way and negate your profits…or worse.

The best way to explain what I’m looking for is simply to identify sizeable blocks of liquidity moving. Sometimes you can see a large block moving in above or below price, but outside of the active trading range, often insulated from getting hit by other blocks or walls of liquidity. I call this Liquidity Herding, because price tends to move away from these blocks. If you can identify that, you can trade it, but beware, the herd doesn’t always do what the herders want. Of course this is why risk management is so important.

The second scenario is easier to spot and easier to trade. It’s also a form of liquidity herding, but it’s done with aggressive stair stepping where the blocks of liquidity are pulled and moved higher or lower. If you can spot those moves, they are quite easy to trade, but you need to be mindful that the last step either gets filled, disappears or reverts without notice.

As with everything in trading, it’s important to consider other factors influencing the market so you have an understanding of where price can, and should go. It’s also worth noting that what “should” happen, doesn’t have to happen and the fact that $45k, $52k, and so far, $56.5k have yet to be retested are great examples of that. Despite what “should” happen from a TA perspective, liquidity placement seen in FireCharts shows us that there is currently no sentiment for sub $50k Bitcoin, but sentiment for sub $60k Bitcoin is fading from $55k - $58k and moving upward to $60k - $61.5k which is an indication that we may not get the retest of support at the local low, unless something changes.

As far as upside potential in the near term. If the Falling Wedge pattern plays out, a measured move from the breakout would take BTC to $73k, but there is a mountain of ask liquidity overhead so I would be surprised to see that happen before we see more bid volume appearing in the active trading range. #NFA

During the LIVE STREAM I was asked about the cost of FireCharts. That answer depends on the package you purchase. The version I use is FireCharts 2.0 (beta) which is available exclusively in PREMIUM+ Plans from Material Indicators. You can compare the different versions here…
https://materialindicators.com/produc...

Have a great weekend!! 😎
—

*Opinions Only. No Financial Advice.

IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT AND SMASH THE LIKE, SHARE AND SUBSCRIBE BUTTONS.

Learn more about FireCharts and other trading tools I share at https://mi1.pw/kapt