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Nick Twidale from ATFX presents a close look at global currency movements, highlighting recent trends impacting the Australian dollar, pound sterling, and Japanese yen. Twidale notes that US weekly initial jobless claims have dropped below expectations, but ongoing claims remain elevated. This, combined with US core capital goods orders surpassing forecasts, points to stronger-than-anticipated corporate expenditures. According to Twidale, the Federal Reserve’s shift away from rate cuts has dramatically altered the market, moving rate cut expectations from 30% to 85% in just over a week.

Twidale states the Australian dollar’s recent rally is largely driven by these shifting US rate expectations. He suggests buying the Aussie on dips and watching for opportunities across currency crosses. The pound sterling, meanwhile, remains resilient despite UK tax hikes, with Twidale observing the impact on the sterling-Aussie exchange rate. For the yen, Twidale flags continued risks around central bank intervention, particularly with thin liquidity during the Thanksgiving period, as the Bank of Japan appears uncomfortable with the dollar-yen rate above 155.

In commodities, Twidale references Deutsche Bank’s bullish outlook on gold, projecting a possible rally towards $5,000 by 2026. Gold remains a key safe haven, with market participants monitoring resistance levels for potential breakouts.