The weekend delivered one of the biggest geopolitical shocks in years. US and Israel struck Iran and took out their supreme leader. BTC spiked to almost exactly $63,000 on Saturday — then closed green for the day, which honestly surprised me. Sunday it pulled back red. We are right back where we were.
The bear flag is intact. I'll call it a bearish pennant if you prefer — same outcome. Slow line still pointing down, price still below the daily TBO cloud, OBV still strongly bearish. Weekly RSI closed at 15.48. The last time it was this low was June 13, 2022, at 12.63. We are exactly on track for a capitulation event. It's taken longer than I'd like, but it's coming.
ETH bounced multiple times off the fast line after last Wednesday's pump, then fell 9% to TBO support Saturday. Weekly confirmed low at 18.8% RSI — the June 2022 low was 12.69. We can still go lower. The structure hasn't changed.
Two things I'm watching closely. DXY just printed its fourth TBO close short in a tight cluster. That's a massive signal pointing toward 100.261. If the dollar rips, equities get crushed. S&P futures are already down 1% on Monday's open. The question is what happens when US markets open this week with Iran in the background. I don't think it's going to be a clean turnaround.
Gold is ripping to TBO fast line with a three-candle TBO breakout cluster confirming. Silver is at the 618 fib. Oil hit my 79.50 target and blew through to 82.37 in one session.
Stablecoin dominance is working on a second TBT bearish divergence cluster — not confirmed yet today, but the more it tags the fast line, the closer we get to stablecoin dominance dropping back inside the cloud. That's when alts get their bounce.
Picks: ETC has a second TBT bullish divergence building — targets 11.05 and 11.60 from here, that's 28-36%. GRT and CFX same setup. RIVER moved up 93% in 7 days and is now past the fast line — expect rejection. HYPE pumped 14% Saturday and is right at the top of the cloud at TBO resistance, RSI starting to get overbought again. PIPPIN had two TBO breakouts then crashed, volume drying up, two close longs confirmed — it's not done falling. HBAR has four TBO close longs in two days, same for TAO with three — these are bearish signals, not reasons to buy.
One more thing — stablecoin dominance RSI is at 89.43. The June 2022 high was 94.19. We are very close to the top. When it rolls over, the rotation starts. Stay patient.
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*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and none of the information presented in this video should be considered financial advice. All content shared is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
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