Скачать или смотреть Banning problematic plastics may save the world up to $8 trillion by 2040

A new global study shows that banning problematic plastic products could result in economic savings ranging from $4.7 to $8 trillion between 2025 and 2040, with certain limitations and restrictions. The research, conducted by Earth Action focuses on plastics that are most likely to end up polluting the environment like expanded polystyrene packaging, PVC, single-use straws and cotton buds.
The study finds that an immediate global ban would be more effective and more economical in the long term than slowly phasing them out. WWF defines problematic plastics as “those with a high likelihood of ending up in the environment and potentially harmful impacts on the environment and human health.” There are short-term transition costs, but the long-term savings far outweigh them. These would come from lower waste management costs, fewer greenhouse gas emissions, mismanaged waste and other associated social and environmental impacts.
Currently, the world produces about 430 million tonnes of plastic every year. Of this, 280 million tonnes becomes waste, and 22 percent is mismanaged, meaning it ends up in the environment instead of being properly disposed of.
If countries take action, global plastic use could drop by up to 224 million tonnes, and mismanaged waste could fall by as much as 74 million tonnes by 2040. The faster the action, the greater the benefits.
Hanna Dijkstra, environmental consultant at Earth Action, explains how the estimates were built. “We modelled different policy scenarios to forecast how much plastic would be produced and consumed under each,” she says. “Then we built cost models to reflect the financial impact of each scenario - including public, private, and social costs.”
Under the business-as-usual scenario (where the plastic production continues along current trends), the global cost of plastic production and use would be around $10 trillion by 2040. But an immediate ban would bring that down to $2 trillion, saving $8 trillion overall.
A slower phase-out would save $7 trillion, while staggered action by richer and poorer countries would save $4.7 trillion - the least effective of the three.
An immediate ban would come with the highest administrative cost at $323 million, but it would also reduce waste management expenses by $50 billion, making it well worth the effort.
Businesses may face transition costs of around $143 million, and a drop in plastic market value of $228 billion. But the study notes that these figures don’t account for the new opportunities in reusable products, circular systems, and sustainable alternatives.
In fact, the private sector stands to gain more than it loses, as new markets emerge. Banning problematic plastics is not just good for the planet - it makes strong economic sense too.


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Down to Earth is Science and Environment fortnightly published by the Society for Environmental Communication, New Delhi. We publish news and analysis on issues that deal with sustainable development, which we scan through the eyes of science and environment.