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Applied Materials export shock: how US curbs hit chip stocks

We are looking at Applied Materials after its shares dropped on fresh guidance that US export curbs will drag down China spending on chipmaking tools in 2026. Washington is tightening rules that stop Chinese firms using affiliates to dodge export controls, and that is cutting into Applied’s China orders, which have already fallen from nearly 40% of revenue to the mid-20% range.
The big picture: China is still the largest buyer of chip equipment, so tighter US rules reshape who gets capex and who loses access to that market.

Winners

Winner Group 1 – Non-US equipment and foundry leaders listed in the US
Reason: Where their tools or capacity are less restricted, they can capture orders that US vendors like Applied cannot ship into China, while also benefiting from global AI build-outs.
Companies: $ASML, $TSM

Winner Group 2 – AI chip designers
Reason: Even with limits on China, the long-term wave of AI data center spending in the US and allied countries still drives huge demand for advanced chips, which keeps their growth story intact.
Companies: $NVDA, $AMD

Winner Group 3 – Onshoring and CHIPS Act foundries
Reason: If China’s access to leading-edge tools is constrained, more strategic fab investment is likely to land in the US and Europe, supporting domestic foundry players.
Companies: $INTC, $GFS

Losers

Loser Group 1 – US front-line wafer fab equipment makers
Reason: These firms are directly hit by export rules and slower China fab spending, with management already flagging revenue headwinds and cost cuts.
Companies: $AMAT, $KLAC

Loser Group 2 – Other US tool makers tied to China capex
Reason: If Chinese fabs trim or delay orders, these suppliers feel it through weaker backlogs and more volatile earnings, even if they are not in the headlines today.
Companies: $LRCX, $ONTO

Loser Group 3 – US component and subsystem suppliers into chip tools
Reason: When big equipment names ship fewer tools into China, the smaller fluid, laser and subsystem vendors inside those tools see lower volumes and higher cyclicality.
Companies: $ICHR, $COHR

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