Скачать или смотреть Birkenstock Q4 2025 Beat & FY26 Margin Hit: Scarcity vs Tariffs Clash

Birkenstock Holding plc reported a strong Q4 2025 with revenue of 526M, beating consensus by 18.5%, and adjusted EPS of 0.51, outperforming estimates. The brand's premium closed-toe styles surged, driving mix and ASP higher, while B2B wholesale growth outpaced direct-to-consumer sales, fueled by younger new consumers discovering the brand. Despite operational excellence, production capacity constraints capped unit growth at about 10%, maintaining engineered scarcity to protect brand value.

However, the FY26 guidance introduced significant margin pressure from external macro factors, including a 200 basis point combined drag from US tariffs on EU goods and foreign exchange headwinds. Management chose to absorb these costs rather than raise prices excessively, preserving the brand's "democratic pricing" ethos but spooking investors. Gross margin is expected to decline to 57.057.5%, and adjusted EBITDA margin to 30.030.5%, triggering an 11% stock drop on heavy volume.

Looking ahead, Birkenstock's long-term growth strategy centers on geographic diversification, especially in the high-margin Asia-Pacific region growing at 34% constant currency. Capital investments aim to increase capacity by ~10% annually, but benefits are expected only by FY27. The company's commitment to scarcity, premiumization, and controlled distribution, alongside a $200M share repurchase plan, underpins confidence in a rebound as tariff impacts wane and APAC expansion accelerates.

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