How many counterspells should you play in cEDH

We are often asking ourselves, what to cut? Well in this video we are looking into how many counterspells you should try and aim for. A ratio so to say. And if you have to many abowe the recommended level, then you have a suggestion from this video on what to cut.

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HOW THE SCATTER PLOTS WAS CREATED
Separate your data into bins depending on their number of counterspells. You can choose bins in different ways. Either in such a way, that the number of samples in each bin is about the same. Then the bins are usually of different width. Or you choose the bins to have equal width. Then you usually have different numbers of samples in each bin.

For 5 bins with about equal sample size you’d get 0-4, 5-10, 11-12, 13-13 (yes, only 13 in that bin) and 14-27 counterspells as the bins, where each bin has between 1000-1200 tournament entries or about 5000-6000 games. Only the bin with 13 counterspells is a bit smaller, but that’s still the allocation where bins are the most equal in sample size.

We then take all samples within a single bin and calculate their average winrate but weighted by their individual number of games. A 50% winrate from 8 games should have more weight than a 50% winrate from 2 games. This will give us the 5 points for our final plot you see in the video (5 bins = 5 points). Each of these points represents the whole range of their respective bin. For plotting purposes we put the single point in the middle of the bin it represents. For example the second bin goes from 5-10 and 7.5 is right in the middle of that That’s why the points are at 2, 7.5, 11.5, 13 and 20.5 counterspells. The win rates for the bins are in order: 19.7%, 21.3%, 23.8%, 23.2% and 21.4%.

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