Скачать или смотреть 2025: Funeral Diplomacy and Real-Time Geopolitics

Donald Trump has passed his 100-days-in-office milestone with plenty of shock and awe bullets coming from the Oval Office. Has his administration boosted the world’s largest economy? Perhaps the truth is being reflected in the behaviour of the bond markets.

In this podcast with financial economist Victor Hill and Master Investor’s Sarah Lowther, the pair discuss Trump, how the sidelining of Elon Musk has been good news for Tesla shareholders and wider geopolitics including the calm diplomacy of world leaders attending the funeral of Pope Francis.

Equally symbolic, Hill reflects, is Charles III's opening of the new Canadian parliament.

As politics is played out in real time, Victor also discusses on what is determining the gold, oil and cryptocurrency markets and what market watchers and the curious should be mindful of in terms of UK political manoeuvres and global events of consequence.

Key moments:

00:00 Intro

02:20 The state of UK politics
Victor Hill acknowledges that the Labour government has established the UK as a widely respected player on the world stage. Domestically, though, points to the government's unpopularity, with major resentment shown towards some of the fiscal measures that it has taken. Victor also considers the continuously grave and possibly deteriorating fiscal situation as one of the factors behind the recent English local election results, which included major gains for the Reform UK party.

08:07 The state of US economics
Victor Hill highlights the decline in business confidence in the US as a result of the unpreditable and fluctuating trade policies established by the US government. Citing Apple's intention to open a factory in India, he points out that US tariffs have so far had limited impact on production reshoring. With a seemingly chaotic economic policy, Victor envisages the US to fail in addressing its growing fiscal deficit and national debt, with rising bond yields indicating increasing costs to service that debt, especially as foreign holders begin to sell their dollar debt.

11:40 The impact of the UK-US trade deal
Victor Hill considers the new trade deal with the US as significant overall but points out two key issues: i) quotas for US agricultural imports, which could undercut British farmers due to lower US animal welfare standards, sparking backlash, ii) short-term benefits for the UK auto and steel industries (with limitations such as vehicle export quotas) while the long-term impact remains uncertain. Victor stresses that any UK regulatory divergence from the EU will complicate efforts to secure a long-term trade deal with the Union, despite the zero-tariff withdrawal agreement.

27:04 The upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks
Victor Hill is doubtful that Russian president Putin will participate in the proposed peace negotiation talks with Ukrainian president Zelensky, as he does not see the Russian side willing to give any concessions, instead suggesting that the aim is to prolong the conflict in order to exhaust Ukraine. He also criticises the recent US-Ukraine minerals deal as largely symbolic, noting obstacles such as unverified resources and Russian-occupied territory. Despite skepticism about immediate outcomes, Victor believes the war is approaching its final phase, with some already exploring post-war investment opportunities in Ukraine.

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