Скачать или смотреть FOMC Economic Projections June 2025 Summary

Welcome to our deep dive into the Federal Reserve's June 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)! In this podcast, we meticulously unpack the latest economic forecasts submitted by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants after their June 17-18 meeting.
We'll cover the crucial outlooks for key economic variables from 2025 to 2027 and over the longer run, including:
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Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth
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The unemployment rate
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Inflation, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and Core PCE inflation
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And critically, the projected appropriate path for the federal funds rate.
Each participant's projection is based on their individual assessment of appropriate monetary policy to achieve the statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability. We'll explore the median, central tendency, and range of these projections, providing a comprehensive view of the consensus and the dispersion of views among policymakers.
A significant focus will be on comparing these June 2025 projections with those released in March 2025, highlighting any shifts in the economic outlook or policy expectations.
Furthermore, we'll delve into the inherent "considerable uncertainty" that attends these economic projections. The economic and statistical models used are "necessarily imperfect descriptions of the real world," and the future path of the economy can be affected by "myriad unforeseen developments and events". We'll discuss how the FOMC considers not only the most likely economic outcome but also the range of alternative possibilities, their likelihood, and potential costs. We'll explain how historical forecast errors inform confidence intervals and examine participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks (whether weighted to the upside, downside, or broadly balanced) around their own projections. We'll also touch upon the graphical representations, such as the "dot plot" for the federal funds rate, which illustrates individual participants' judgments. Notably, the dispersion of projections among participants is "much smaller than the average forecast errors over the past 20 years".
Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of the Fed's latest economic outlook and the underlying considerations shaping future monetary policy decisions!

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