Скачать или смотреть INTU Earnings Shock: AI Hype vs. Mailchimp Drag & Weak Outlook

Intuit (INTU) reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, beating Wall Street expectations with non-GAAP EPS of $2.75 and revenue soaring 20% year-over-year to $3.83 billion. Despite these impressive headline numbers, the market reacted negatively, sending the stock down by approximately 7%. This video unpacks the central paradox of Intuit's latest financial results, highlighting the disconnect between robust past performance and the cautious investor sentiment driven by other factors.

CEO Sasan Goodarzi presented a compelling bull case centered on an AI-powered future, detailing a vision of "virtual AI agents" and "Intuit Assist" that are already seeing strong customer adoption and promise significant future upside. However, this long-term AI narrative is overshadowed by immediate challenges, primarily the Mailchimp acquisition, which continues to be a drag on the business due to usability and customer retention issues. While Intuit's QuickBooks mid-market segment grew an impressive 40% and TurboTax Live revenue jumped 47%, Mailchimp's underperformance is a key concern.

The primary driver behind the stock drop was the conservative forward guidance for Q1 FY26 revenue growth, projected at 14-15% against analyst expectations of 16%. This signaled a potential slowdown in growth, prompting a cautious market reaction. Our investment thesis points to a "market-perform" rating, as the immense long-term AI potential is currently balanced by Mailchimp's struggles and a conservative near-term outlook. Investors should closely watch for concrete AI monetization plans at the upcoming Investor Day and signs of Mailchimp's turnaround, especially after the board approved a significant $3.2 billion share buyback.

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