Скачать или смотреть Advancements in Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting: A New Ensemble Approach

the predictability of hurricane storm surge by developing a method to parameterize and adjust tropical cyclones derived from global atmospheric model data. The researchers utilized the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System and the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) to create storm surge ensembles for Hurricane Michael (2018). By analyzing the ensemble forecasts at various initialization times, they evaluated the potential for extending storm surge prediction to several-day lead times and identified the challenges associated with predicting the details of inundation. The study concluded that the proposed approach can help identify situationally and physically realistic scenarios that pose greater storm surge risk and can be useful for improving real-time probabilistic storm surge prediction.