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The stages in a conflict life cycle are:
• Pre-conditions
• Emergence
• Escalation
• De-escalation
• Termination
Preconditions: This is the pre-conflict phase. Its main feature is the existence of preconditions for
a conflict, but they remain unrecognized, Even when they are identified, there is no acknowledgement
that they would cause conflict. Acknowledgement of these preconditions enables the prevention of
conflict.
Emergence of Conflict: During this stage, incompatible expectations and goals get formed. They
are formed on the basis of grievances and the negative responses they receive.
Conflict Escalation: During this phase, the conflict enters into a qualitatively new phase in terms
of scale and intensity. Militarization of the conflict, increased numbers of death, and destruction of
life and property occur during this stage. The political conflict within the state is also transformed
Root Cause and
Latent Conflict
Conflict Formation
Conflict Escalation
Mutually Hurting Stalemate
De-escalation
Peace Talks
Conflict Termination
Post-Conflict Peace B
uilding
Time scale
Intensity
into a civil war. Parties to the conflict are committed to achieving unilateral victories. In intra-state
conflict, this stage is usually long in duration. The space for a negotiated settlement to the conflict
does not exist during this phase.
De-escalation: After escalation, conflicts have a tendency to de-escalate. De-escalation really
begins when the parties to the conflict exchange signals that they want to de-escalate. Parties
reach this stage due to a variety of reasons. Lack of resources to maintain the intensity of conflict,
decline of popular support, international pressure, exhaustion the parties might experience, and the
weakening of the commitment to unilateral solutions are some major factors for conflict deescalation.
The theory of mutually hurting stalemate, advanced by William Zartman, explains how a conflict
escalates and begins to de-escalate. This theory applies to civil war situations. Zartman shows that
when an armed conflict stays in the stage of escalation for some time, the capacity of parties to
maintain the level of conflict escalation tends to diminish. It is a new situation which parties cannot
win unilaterally, or achieve unilateral solutions. Parties cannot retreat, or de-escalate, unilaterally
either. This is a situation of ‘deadlock’ which actually hurts the parties. Zartman calls this situation
as a ‘mutually hurting stalemate’.
According to Zartman’s theory, this is the moment when parties seek and are ready to explore
joint solutions to the conflict so that both parties can claim they have not lost. Zartman says that this
is the pre-condition for successful de-escalation. This also creates space for third party mediation
to encourage parties to find a negotiated solution.
Conflict Termination: When an internal conflict is turned into a civil war and when it gets protracted
over a long period of time, the ending of the conflict also takes time. Thus, conflict termination is
also a process. Some armed conflict ends in a unilateral victory to one side. When the losing party
is the rebels, the victorious government has the right to decide whether the grievances of the losing
side should be addressed or not.
Some conflicts end through mediation and a negotiated settlement. Negotiated settlements
enable parties to find shared outcomes to the conflict, without one side either winning or losing.
Such solutions are called win-win-solutions to conflict in the sense that both sides are satisfied
with the outcome. Mediation by an outside third party enables conflict parties to come to the
negotiation table, to negotiate and then work out the terms of agreement. When parties terminate
the conflict through a mutually agreed peace agreement, it takes the form of a compromise and
mutual accommodation.