Скачать или смотреть Intense tropical cyclone Grant this is dangerous system weather satellite images update

This is a dangerous system. Possible risks include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.

Information provided by JTWC
Wind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.

Grant is located 1304 km southeast of Diego Garcia, and has tracked westward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 8.5 meters (28 feet).

Grant is forecast to track west-southwestward, along the northern edge of the subtropical ridge to the south, over the next 3 days.

In around 3 days, a second subtropical ridge is expected to build to the southwest of the system, causing Grant to take a brief west-northwestward turn.

Regarding intensity, Grant is forecast to peak in around 12 hours, though recent imagery suggests the peak may have already occurred. Nonetheless, the environment will remain favorable over the next 24 hours with strong poleward outflow and low wind shear.

After 24 hours, northeasterly shear is expected to increase, causing Grant to begin weakening. In around 3 days, dry air is also expected to begin entraining into the vortex from the north, further weakening the system.

Model guidance is in very good agreement over the next 3 days with a 139 km cross-track spread at 3 days. After 3 days, models slightly diverge due to differences in formation and interaction with the second subtropical ridge.

Cross-track spread increases to around 250 at 5 days. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence over the next 3 days and medium confidence thereafter.

Mesoscale models range from slight weakening over the next 12 hours (HWRF) to slight intensification (HAFS-A). After 12 hours, models generally agree on weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

The JTWC intensity forecast follows closely to the HAFS-A with overall medium confidence.