Скачать или смотреть Why Dave Ramsey’s 8% Withdrawal Rate Fails: A Simple Sequence of Returns Demo

Some investors focus on average returns… but average returns can lie.
In this video, I walk through a simple spreadsheet simulation that reveals the real threat to retirees: Sequence of Returns Risk.

We compare two 30-year market sequences:
• One with bad returns in the first decade
• One with strong returns early
Both scenarios end with the exact same 30-year CAGR, proving that the order of returns doesn’t matter when you’re not withdrawing.

But when we introduce a $1 million portfolio and apply a 4% initial withdrawal rate (inflation-adjusted, ~3% real), everything changes.
Despite identical long-term growth, the portfolio facing early negative returns depletes far faster. This clearly shows why retirees need to think beyond the market averages.

I also break down the fallacy of relying on arithmetic average returns, like Dave Ramsey’s claim of a 12% market return and his suggested 8% withdrawal rate—a level that doesn’t hold up once you account for real-world volatility.

If you’re planning for retirement—or helping others do it—this is essential math that could save a portfolio.