Скачать или смотреть Lyn Alden- "The Fed and the Breaking Point"- Long term debt cycle work is critically important now.

Long term debt cycles are critical to understand now and this interview with Lyn Alden on October 17, 2022 laid out her clears views of how record levels of sovereign debt are likely to be resolved given her careful study of economic history.

We hosted a webinar with economic historian and macro strategist Lyn Alden. Her depth of research stems from her creation of a proprietary database that allowed her to analyze and reveal many relationships between economic variables over spans of time. This allowed her to develop insightful conclusions about "money" and the development of digital assets, and the evolution of these into Bitcoin and Ethereum and other crypto currencies. Her talent is in making all of this analysis and her conclusions easy to understand.

Here are the important takeaways discussed in our webinar:
Long term debt cycles is Lyn’s specialty and has been her focus ever since she built a proprietary database from economic and market data
Her work shows today’s similarity to the 1940s as the best recent history time analogy.
Volker tightened when debt:GDP was only 30%, today it is ~120-130% and therefore is far more likely to take the form of “Financial Repression” where rates are held lower than inflation to escape the huge debt burden.
Central banks during these periods lose independence and power relative to sovereign governments.
Fed is unlikely to be able to continue to keep rates high until they meet their inflation objectives because some markets-based liquidity crisis may occur that will cause them to respond before then, much like in 2019 with the reverse repo market crisis.
Inflation tends to accelerate from monetary expansions once fiscal stimulus kicks in that ignites it.
Beach ball analogy for inflation in the next decade- Pressures have shifted from disinflation caused by cheap China labor and rapidly increasing supplies of oil to inflation going forward. So the Fed will need to remain tight for a long time to keep those inflationary pressures under control.
But during times of high inflation and high debt, governments intervene, which tends to concentrate economic benefits to the larger organizations, called the Cantillon Effect, exacerbating populist sentiment.
Invention of Bitcoin. Decentralization invented by Satoshi was the game-changer. Structurally bullish on Bitcoin as demand should be able to grow, if not in the US where the dollar remains strong, but certainly among populations who suffer under more repressive governments as has been shown over time.
Bitcoin demand may rise in the US and globally if the Fed reverses before achieving its inflation targets just as it did when the Bank of England reversed its policy to save the pension system earlier this month. That caused demand for Bitcoin to rise from the UK and Europe.
The smart contract invention of Ethereum (and other competitive protocols as they are today) presents an opportunity for improvement in financial efficiency in some use cases like securities trading and settlement, but more innovation is required for it to have a broader impact in the future.
Energy markets are a key reason for structurally higher inflation, but demand fluctuations in the near term can swing pricing.
Investment position today- strategically cautious because of the long-term debt cycle that coincides with crises of the past, but tactically bullish from the current extreme negative sentiment.