Скачать или смотреть Fed Rate Cut Lock-In: AI Bubble Fear & The Court Wild Card That Could End Inflation

Don't let the quiet surface of the market fool you. This week is dominated by one massive event, but the road to it is paved with confusing signals and major threats. We dive into the contradictory forces at play and the one single decision that could define the rest of the year.
1. Confusing Crypto Signals Institutional players are sending "confusing and frankly contradictory messages" about the future of crypto. On one hand, professional traders on the CME are closing short-term bets, indicated by falling open interest. This suggests "short-term jitters". On the other hand, corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are demonstrating "serious long-term conviction" by continuing to buy and not selling a single coin last week. The overall picture is muddled: Bitcoin ETF sentiment has been totally flat, and BlackRock has often been leading the selling. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs are showing a slightly more stable, positive neutral trend.
2. The AI Bubble Hysteria There is growing "hysteria" in the media surrounding a potential AI bubble. Headlines are escalating, with warnings of potential "chaos" and massive market disruption if the AI bubble pops. Despite the media focus, a recent poll showed that investors are actually more worried about geopolitics. However, the fear is real, as one in four investors still view the AI bubble as the single biggest threat.
3. The Supreme Court Wild Card An unexpected wild card could impact everything from corporate profits to inflation: a US Supreme Court ruling on a case challenging Trump-era tariffs on imported goods. If the court strikes down the tariffs (a case brought by retailers like Costco), prices for imported items would fall. This would immediately and powerfully ease inflation pressure, giving the Federal Reserve "unexpected help" in its fight against rising prices.
4. The Main Event: The Fed Rate Decision The central focus of the week is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Following a key statement from a Fed insider, market expectations have completely shifted. The market is now pricing in an absolutely overwhelming consensus—a whopping greater than 90% probability—for an interest rate cut this week. This incredibly rare level of certainty means that if the Fed somehow defies expectations and holds rates steady, the consequences could be quite severe.
This critical decision lands right in the middle of a historically choppy period for the NASDAQ, which typically lasts until December 19th before the traditional year-end Santa Claus rally begins. The Fed's choice is the single domino that will determine whether history repeats itself and we get that rally.