Скачать или смотреть The Most Expected Recession (?) Explained in One Minute

Whenever even thinking about discussing the idea of a recession caused by interest rates going up, you cannot help but feel strangely uncomfortable... as if you are in an overcrowded "Captain Obvious" trade and everyone else judges you for that.

The exact opposite of a black swan, if you will.

But is now the right time to be a contrarian? To assume the crowd is wrong and the economy will therefore do much better than expected?

While nothing is impossible, it's important to keep in mind that no... the crowd isn't always wrong. Not unless you think believing in gravity is wrong, for example.

Indeed, being in a crowded leveraged trade is not always the best idea in the world but expecting "the most expected recession" if we are to call it that is hardly comparable to a yolo short :)

So what is this infamous most expected recession all about, what are the causes and how does it make sense to position yourself? While by no means definitive, this video should at least help you get on the right track.