Russia's Declining Oil Capacity and the Deeper Problems of Cartel Politics

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At the beginning of March, Russia announced that it would be cutting oil output as a part of a broader OPEC+ plan to reduce raise global prices. However, there are two reasons that this may be happening. First, as a consequence of the war, it could be that Russia has lost the capacity to produce the same level of oil. Second, it could be that Russia is taking steps to ensure that the cartel pricing scheme does not fall apart. This video examines the evidence for both, using some deep cuts into bargaining theory to help us understand what is happening.

0:00 Russia's Oil Cuts
2:11 Recent Oil Politics
4:31 Is Russia Losing Its Oil Capacity?
9:58 The Case for Voluntary Russian Cuts
13:24 Why Impatience Is a Virtue in Cartel Collusion
17:45 The Meta Problem with Uncertain Capacity
19:23 The Main Implications for the War

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