Country Risk: The 2024 Update

If there is a lesson that I learned from the 2008 market crisis, it is that market crises almost always play out as big changes in the price of risk. In keeping with that lesson, I have been updating my implied equity risk premiums for the S&P 500 every month, and my country risk premiums twice a year. I have also created two annual updates, one on equity risk premiums that I publish in March of each year and the other on country risk that I publish in July each year. This session provides an abridged version of the my 2024 country risk premium update, starting with the drivers of country risk, moving on to measures (sovereign ratings, country risk scores, equity risk premiums) and closing with an explanation of how country risk plays out in business and investing decisions.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...
Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...
Blog Post:
Data:
1. Equity Risk Premiums, by country, in July 2024: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...
2. Currency riskfree rates in July 2024: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar...