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Donald Trump was expected to fly into the Nato summit in The Hague on Tuesday to perform a victory lap. After decades of complaining about European defence spending, with the help of Mark Rutte, Nato’s new secretary general, allies are ready to sign up to a target to raise, in most cases, core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

On top of that, it is just a few days since the first major military intervention of Trump’s second term – the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan over the weekend – and hours since his declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Barring a dramatic breakdown in that ceasefire, Trump is likely to arrive in a self-congratulatory mood, which most Nato leaders are unlikely to want to puncture at a cut-down summit, designed for leaders with short attention spans. It will begin with a dinner hosted by the Dutch king, Willem-Alexander, on Tuesday evening, to be followed by a single working meeting on Wednesday morning with press conferences thereafter.

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