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Is the United States in decline?

No. Clearly not.

There are many ways we know this is true.

Endless lines of people seeking to come to America. No other country ever had such a draw on people. No one is begging entry to totalitarian China or criminal Russia.

America protects freedom of the seas and is the mighty umbrella for the free world.

There is no better country anywhere, in all history.

No denial.


I'm 42, for as long as I can remember, the United States has been in decline. When I was a child, the first foreign country I remember hearing about was the Soviet Union, or Russia as everyone referred to it. We were slightly more technologically advanced than they were, but they were going to surpass us. Their kids did better in school than ours. They were more unified. In a war, we'd lose to them. The future belonged to them.

When I was a little bit older, it was Japan that we had to “fear". Unlike Russia, this was a democracy with a powerful, consumer-driven economy. We were slightly more technologically advanced than they were, but they were going to surpass us. Their kids did better in school than ours. They were more unified. We held all the cards militarily, but in an economic war we'd get crushed. The future belonged to them.

Along comes China. Unlike Japan, they have a massive population and endless natural resources. We're slightly more technologically advanced than them, but they're going to surpass us. Their kids do better in school than ours. They're more unified. Before long, they'll be able to crush us economically and militarily. The future belongs to them.

Back at home, all you have to do is turn on the news. Throughout this country's history, it's mostly been good news, right? It was an extended golden age until now. Now is when it's all going to hell. Right?.


Sure.

While we are not actually declining by any measure, we are losing share of influence.

If you stand at the North Pole, every direction you look is South. At the end of WWII, the US was the only remaining viable power. All other powers were destroyed and in crisis. (The Soviet Union was able to expand their influence anyway). So for the US, that was the peak share of influence.

Today, influence comes for the major population nations, (India and China), major developing countries, (Brazil, etc.), oil producers, and wealthy nations formed into loose political entities (Europe). So the US is down from maybe an 80% share of global influence to around 20%, as it should be.

The US has natural advantages and our population is famously self-centered. So it doesn’t seem like decline to us, her in the US.