Скачать или смотреть Why has cholera has shifted from West to East Africa

For decades, cholera has haunted Africa, striking hardest where clean water and sanitation are scarce. A new study in Nature Medicine shows that while overall cholera rates haven’t changed much in the past decade, the places hit hardest have shifted.

Between 2011 and 2015, western Africa—countries like Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria—saw frequent outbreaks. But from 2016 onwards, the epicenter shifted eastwards. Ethiopia, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and parts of Tanzania and Uganda now carry the heaviest burden.

By 2020, nearly 300 million people in Africa—more than one in four—were living in high-risk areas. And here’s the worrying part: in just five years, more than 135 million people went from low risk to high risk.

The study shows how unpredictable cholera can be. Some places, like the DRC, report outbreaks year after year. Others go quiet for years, then flare up suddenly—like Ghana, which saw cholera return in 2024 after nearly a decade without it.

Why the shifts? Researchers point to conflict, displacement, floods, droughts, and even climate change. And while oral cholera vaccines save lives, supplies are far too limited—forcing the World Health Organization to sometimes cut doses in half to stretch them further.

The takeaway? Cholera is moving, fast and unpredictably. To fight it, experts say we need to target vaccines, clean water, and sanitation to today’s hotspots—not yesterday’s. Because in Africa, no place is completely safe until safe water is everywhere.