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https://www.americanprogress.org/article/n...

Trump administration policies affect American households’ resources differently at different income levels. Americans at all income levels—except for the top 1 percent—will have lower after-tax-and-transfer income in 2027 because of the administration’s signature economic policies. By 2029, Americans at all income levels will have lighter pocketbooks, on average, than they would under a scenario in which the Trump administration’s policies were never implemented.

In 2027, the poorest 20 percent of American households will be $160 worse off because of the new policies in the OBBBA and will lose $1,490 in income to tariffs, for a net decrease of $1,650, or 3.4 percent of their income. (see Figure 1) At the same time, the middle 20 percent of American households, who have an average income of $109,000, will see that income decrease by $1,300 after they receive a tax cut (net of spending cuts) of $950; but the Trump administration’s massive tariffs increase their costs by $2,250. In contrast, new provisions in the OBBBA give the top 1 percent a $17,800 benefit, which exceeds their average $12,800 tariffs costs by $5,000.

Many of the new OBBBA tax policies are set to expire after 2028, even as cuts to Medicaid and other social assistance programs grow. In 2029, the average income of the poorest fifth of Americans will be 5 percent, or $2,500, lower because of these Trump administration policies. The tariffs and the OBBBA will also lower middle-class Americans’ average income by $2,000, or 1.8 percent, in 2029. Even the top 1 percent will have a slightly lower average income in 2029 after accounting for tariffs.