Скачать или смотреть Predicting Earthquakes and Volcanoes: What Can and Can't Now Be Done (Part 6 of 7)

IRISEnO — May 02, 2010 — Part 6 of 7 of one-hour lecture on: Predicting Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions:What Can and Can't Now Be Done

April 20th, 2010 - IRIS/SSA Distinguished Lectureship Public Lecture: Dr. Stephen Malone
Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) - Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), Portland, Oregon
Predicting disastrous earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is a major goal of earth science research. What is the current state-of-the-art in making such predictions? An apparent paradox is that, while volcanic eruptions can often be predicted using earthquake data, there is currently no scientifically valid method of predicting earthquakes, despite claims often made in the popular press. A valid and socially useful prediction is one that includes size, place and time in more detail than can be expected from random chance.
This talk will cover some successful predictions of volcanic eruptions and compare these to some previous attempts at earthquake prediction. What is fundamentally different about earthquakes that make them so hard to predict? What are some promising avenues of research such as "remote triggering" of earthquakes and the newly discovered Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) that may lead to success in the future?
Finally, while not true prediction, how could earthquake early warning technology be used today to mitigate some earthquake hazards? Will accurate earthquake forecasting be possible in the near future or will we forever wonder when the next big earthquake will occur?