Скачать или смотреть The 2026 Recession Nobody Sees Coming

Every Recession Indicator That Predicted the Last 50 Years Is Flashing — What Wall Street's 30% Probability Misses
Thirty percent.
That's the recession probability Wall Street assigns to 2026. The same institutions that rated subprime bonds triple-A in 2007. The same forecasters who said the economy was healthy in October 2007.
Meanwhile, every leading indicator that has predicted downturns for half a century is signaling stress. Not one or two. All of them.
This video examines the disconnect between consensus forecasts and forward-looking data — and what the historical pattern suggests.
What we cover:

Yield curve: Inverted for 36 months — the longest and deepest inversion on record — now un-inverting, which historically signals recession is imminent, not averted
Sahm Rule: Triggered in 2024; whether it's a false positive or a delayed signal depends on what happens next
Conference Board LEI: Declined 2.1% over six months through September 2025, with weakening breadth across components
Manufacturing: ISM PMI in contraction for 9 consecutive months following 26 consecutive months of prior contraction — the longest streak on record
Bankruptcies: 717 companies filed through November 2025, highest since the Great Recession aftermath
Consumer stress: Credit card delinquencies at 12.3% (highest since 2011), auto loan serious delinquencies at record highs, student loan delinquencies surging post-forbearance
The five forces converging: Monetary policy lag effects, fiscal cliff from expired stimulus, tariff-induced supply shocks, frozen labor markets, consumer exhaustion across the bottom 80%
Why lagging indicators (GDP, unemployment) remain green while leading indicators flash red — and what that pattern looked like in 2007

The mainstream forecast assumes things go right. The indicators already reflect things going wrong. The stress is in the system. The question is severity.
By the time GDP turns negative for two consecutive quarters, recession has typically been underway for 6-9 months. The NBER often dates recessions as starting a full year before they announce it.

💬 Your perspective: How are you weighing consensus forecasts against leading indicator signals? What's your preparation framework?
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Educational and informational content only. Not financial advice. Economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty. Indicators that worked historically may not predict future outcomes. Conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions.

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finance trade,trade,finance war,trading,siver,gold,price pridicion, price prediction, stock market, usa finance, recession, 2026 economy