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High Energy Period: 11–17 October Now Active

The High Energy Period between 11–17 October is now well and truly underway.

Widespread storms — some becoming severe — are developing from the northern tropics, extending south through the central interior and east across the eastern states.

A key takeaway is the limited moisture availability despite a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently in play. Moisture advection from the Indian Ocean remains weak, with the main concentration confined to the northern tropics, stretching from the Top End east through northern Queensland.

This restricted moisture flow increases the likelihood of dry lightning — a growing ignition source for fires across inland regions. The limited rainfall accumulation observed so far is an early warning signal for the months ahead, with the potential for an extended fire season across southeastern Australia lasting into March 2026.

Adding to this, early indicators suggest the broader climate setup may be shifting toward a return of heightened fire conditions by late 2026–27, as the ENSO phase transitions toward El Niño and underlying long-term drivers begin to reinforce drying patterns.
Residents and industries across the southeast are reminded to plan for an active fire season in the months ahead — and to prepare for longer-term rainfall deficiencies extending through 2026.

Tomorrow’s Member Update will provide a detailed breakdown of:

The peak rainfall window for Spring 2025 (November)
Nationwide and state-by-state forecasts
Future climate prospects through 2026

As always, ignore the endless model screenshots circulating online. By now, most are aware of the limitations of computer models, and even more so of those reposting them with false promises of abundance. Reliable forecasting takes far more than short-term data — it requires pattern recognition, energy tracking, and long-range understanding.

www.ozindustriesforecasting.com

#knowthefutureoftheweather