Скачать или смотреть NVIDIA & AMD's Declining Dominance In China [Preview Short 1]

Description:
Will NVIDIA and AMD survive China’s $30B+ AI compute market, or collapse under geopolitical pressure? This analysis examines the 15% agreement, export-control shocks, and the rise of China’s domestic AI semiconductors. The dynamics of financial exposure, inventory write-downs, and chip-performance differentials point to one of the most consequential moments in AI industrial policy.

NVIDIA and AMD’s new 15 percent China-revenue agreement coincides with a 3 percent market pullback as analysts project 30 billion dollars in AI-chip sales by 2027 with up to 1.2 million units shipped while China signals dissatisfaction through state-media warnings about “faulty” or insecure U.S. chips and accusations of tracking features, even as domestic players like Huawei, Cambricon, and Iluvatar CoreX accelerate investment with Cambricon’s valuation reaching 423.5 billion yuan on thin profitability and extreme multiples, highlighting strategy over earnings, and despite strong historical demand from Alibaba and ByteDance, China may defer purchases to push substitution as U.S. leadership hints at potential future export-control deals; meanwhile hardware comparisons show the Ascend 910C and 920 closing the gap but still trailing U.S. ecosystem maturity, and financial filings reveal NVIDIA absorbing a 4.5 billion dollar H20 charge, 2.5 billion dollars in blocked revenue, and margin compression while AMD carries an 800 million dollar inventory reserve, leaving both companies under pressure to preserve China volumes as tightening Chinese restrictions escalate operational and strategic risk.

Why This Matters:
China’s $30B+ AI chip market sits at the center of global technological rivalry. Export rules, market-access agreements, and domestic substitution are reshaping corporate financials, accelerating China’s semiconductor independence, and challenging NVIDIA and AMD’s dominance.

Key Insights:
Geopolitics and Market Structure
• Implications of the U.S.–China AI export regime and the 15% revenue carve-out
• How these terms reshape NVIDIA’s and AMD’s long-term China profit pools
• Signals from U.S. leadership on additional chipset deals

China’s Semiconductor Investment Benchmarks
• Cambricon’s valuation jump to CNY 423.5B (~$58.5B)
• Revenue, P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA trends illustrating policy-driven pricing
• Why early profitability remains low despite exponential valuation multiples

Technical Performance Gap
• Comparative analysis: NVIDIA H20, AMD MI300, Huawei Ascend 910C/920, Cambricon MLU series
• HBM capacity, bandwidth, chiplet architectures, and scaling challenges
• Why ecosystem maturity still tilts advantage toward U.S. vendors in the near term

Financial Stress Tests
• NVIDIA’s $4.5B H20 charge, $2.5B unshipped revenue, and margin compression
• AMD’s $800M export-related inventory reserve and reduced flexibility
• Break-even revenue requirements under new geopolitical constraints

Strategic Outlook
• Why China may defer demand through state-linked industrial policy
• How domestic accelerators are closing the hardware gap faster than expected
• What this means for NVIDIA, AMD, hyperscalers, and investors through 2027

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